tv Bloomberg Markets European Close Bloomberg May 8, 2017 11:00am-12:01pm EDT
" on bloomberg markets. ♪ mark: in politics, emmanuel macron cruises to a victory to become friends' president. how will this win affect france's business climate? we are live with the nation's top executives. how will this affect angela merkel's reelect meant --election campaign? merger monday with coach, kate spade and tribune, being held up is a pharmaceutical company.
minutes into the monday session. the two boxes i want to for you is france's -- index. the euro down by 6/10 of 1%. it was up over a quarter of 1%. the macron presidency should help the euro dr. -- should up 116euro-dollar leading to for euro swissie. those of the key assets to watch out for today. yields are creeping up across the eurozone. we will talk with -- about oil. let's get the corporate news. .his is a one-year chart rejecting ppg industries.
define pressure from shareholders to engage with its bid.r over its $27 billion rejected to offers from ppg saying they were too low and not worthy of discussion. the chief executive of accel proposed splitting up the company and splitting it up and rewarding shareholders with a high dividend. one of those other shareholders are going to think -- what are those shareholders think? that preorders expanding for second month. orders are-- adjusted to inflation and rose -- rose above the estimate. saying economy gathered momentum in the first quarter on the back of strong consumer spending and
a brightening outlook. that is the trend going back to 2011. in china, oversee shipments holding up amid recovery global demand is a threat of a trade war with the u.s. receiving exports -- receiving. exports rising and increasing 11.9%. -- trade surplus the export outlook is improving because of recovering global demand. in imports and exports missed estimates. that is added to recent evidence that growth may be pulling back after a strong first quarter. 90 minutes into the trading day in the u.s.. ? lie, what is it looking like julie: that chinese data is not having more of an effect around the globe. over the past year or so, that
had diminishing effects on global stocks. maybe it will come back. for now, we are stocks pull back a little bit in today's session. i misspoke earlier when i said all three major averages had touched record highs. make it to not quite that milestone, and now we are seeing a decline. take a look at the bloomberg. this tracks the simultaneous highs as they have happen in the major averages where you see the blue lines. this goes back for one year. we did not quite get there for the dow. the nasdaq is in white and the s&p is in purple and the dow is in peak. -- is an pink> via seen a cluster of record highs, but the last -- it seen a cluster of record highs, but have not seen a return to that level. there is some sideways movement. another individual stock making yet another record is apple.
it has been frequent that apple has been rekindled levels. today, drexel hamilton analyst brian white raising his target to $210. interestingly, he says apple is among the most underappreciated stocks in the world despite the fact that 79% of analysts who cover the stock do have a buy rating on it and it is the most widely held if not the most widely held stock. we're having a little graphical difficulty. i am going to -- can we take a look at the 10 year as well because we had some comments from various that officials. we are seeing the yielded dollar gold higher. falling the fed risks behind and needs to keep on pacer raising rates. mark? mark: let's get back -- let's get back to our big story -- emmanuel macron's victory.
let's get reaction from the banking sector and french industry. let's head to paris. >> this is our last guest of the day. he is the ceo of --, which is the french capital financial sector. how are you? >> very well. >> so, today, a metal macron wins the election -- emmanuel macron wins the election. >> it was a very good view for france, for europe, as well as for paris is an international financial markets. is a strongron supporter of the paris financial center. he reformed the concern of the labor rules and we are confident that it will accelerate the reforms that he will reform. >> we are already seeing
protests against the labor reform that he wants to implement in the first 100 days of his presidency. challenges get a, and how can he succeed? difference between emmanuel macron and his predecessors is that he is much more concerned about the social questions. he has a social spirit. he likes to explain what he is doing, whether he wants to implement macron law. lester, he spent much time explaining to the parliament what the objectives were in the measures he wanted to implement were good for france. we're very confident that he will do that. he has many qualities to make friends people understand.
we have to bear in mind that marine le pen the twice better than her father and 2002, and she has the support of more than 10 million french people. how can you really push through labor reform another economy reforms? violencereating social in france and resistance to go -- resistance? everybody told me, you are very kind, but we did not predict brexit in the u.k., and we got a brexit. we did not predict mr. trump, and we got mr. trump. quiteench people are -- they willill
reject the second tour. now we have a very business minded president. this is the reason for which we are confident for the future. >> your job is to lower some -- from lure some bankers london to paris. d1 emmanuel macron to be tough -- do you want emmanuel macron to be tough? >> first, we have more than 200 international banks, investors, asset management companies in london, new york, and tokyo. is interested in becausees in france they have to rebalance part of the activities to the e.u. cycle and the first quarter was the french election.
now we are at the beginning of a new period. mr. macron has taken engagements to accelerate reforms on the three major topics that interest international market players. first, labor rules. second, social causes. and finally, implementing better stability in the french greg latorre environments. quickly, whoeally gave you interest from london? what financial institutions have expressed their interest? we know hbc wants to move people from london to paris. who else? banks arm --u.s. paris as thed in number one financial center in the european union apart from london. market strong activities. banker thea japanese
difference between -- we have competitors and businesses and french and international. clients and our interests is to be our clients. >> he is helping on emmanuel macron to make it easier for paris to attract london jobs after brexit. mark: thank you so much. election,y after the must be pretty subdued in paris could let's check in on first world news. >> that morning. obama administration official warned the white house about contracts with russia. former acting attorney general
sally yates testifying before a senate hearing. she has not spoken publicly about michael flynn before. white house officials said that sally yates gave them a heads up about his contacts with russia, but she is levied to testify about her warning was stronger than that. another news, and washington, u.s. secretary of state rex tillerson will meet wednesday with his russian counterpart. the state department is tillerson and -- will discuss ukraine in syria. last week at a russian sponsored peace talks, syria agreed to the establishment of so-called de-escalation zones, but they were still fighting over the weekend. russian now says support extending those opec oil cuts young the end of the year. the six-month deal is scheduled to expire next month. saida's industry minister that it will speed up rebalancing. saudi arabia had also said the
agreement could extend past the end of 2017. in north korea, authorities have arrested a second american instructor at the university. both are accused of unspecified hostile acts against the country. it is not clear if the arrest kimpart of north korea's jong un -- global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. mark: thank you. coming up, we will have more on crude and the potential for a supply cut extension. will it be enough to spark a significant price jump? this is bloomberg. ♪
headquarters from your, i'm vonnie quinn. mark: and i'm mark barton. let's get to crude oil. productionextend cuts doubling down efforts to eliminate supply glut. joining me is julie. there was talk that they had to double down, or cut by more, or extend. it seems as if they will extend in 2018. >> they are talking about it. there seems to be a growing swell a momentum behind that. the problem is, this isn't doing anything to solve the problem. a massiveen oil up $.10 today on the back of both saudi arabia and russia, the two biggest producers of these
groups of countries saying they will extend cuts into 2018. and it has done nothing. the problem is, contrary to what the russian energy minister says , is that this extension will speed up the balancing, it will not. what it means is the rebalancing will go on into 2018. it will not make it any faster. the only way to make it faster is to cut more supply, and the problem is if you look at the initial forecasts for 2018, the u.s. department of energy forecast, they are consistently month after month, cutting their estimate on the amount of oil from opec that the world will meet next are because shale is growing so fast. that this is the chart tell you everything you need to know. this is wti. that is the point that opec agreed to trim out cut -- to trim output. >> we were below the point on the close of the day of the
meeting. the worrying thing is that one brent got toay, within $.30 of where it closed before that opec meeting. you know, right back to where they started from. vonnie: julian, is there a danger that it becomes a vicious cycle that the more opec promises to cut, the lower the price goes? julian: i think the problem is the more they promise to cut, the more they built into the market and expectation of prices being maintained and then taking the action to stop prices falling. comfort youhe more get within the shale oil patch, the more investment goes into shale, and the more shale production rises. we have already seen, and the first four months of this year, but every month, the u.s. department of energy has been
raising its estimates of u.s. production. it's publishing his neck short-term outlook. tomorrow, it may reset up with again. vonnie: how will a rock respond -- how will iraq respond? julien: iran has had something of a free ride in the first phase of this, the first six months, has been allowed to increase production. it has largely done that. it has sort of got into a limit in iran of what it is able to produce that more investment, both domestic and foreign. so, i think iran will be in a position to freeze its output and cannot raise much quickly. the big question is faced fariraq. they have not -- the big question is iraq. the have not agreed with outputs. they have quite ambitious capacity expansion the second
half of the year and into 2018 with these big projects of foreign investors in the south. they and other opec members will find it more difficult to comply with cuts in the second half of this year than they have in the first. mark: julian, great to see you. ahead, akzonobel rejects a third takeover bid from ppg. we will look at what will happen next. this is bloomberg. ♪
prospect of a hostile takeover. his ppg going to go hostile? ruth: that is what michael mcgarry seems to be indicating. they said that akzonobel has until june to come to the table and negotiate a deal. if they do not do that, then hostile is the way to go. market mind, the dutch is one of the toughest to get a hostile takeover accomplished. talking through this 19 minute -- 90 minute meeting? ruth: it reflected the tone of the meeting. they wanted to make it seem like akzonobel was talking to you, but saying no and please go away. ppg seems to be interested. the shareholders are saying --
akzonobel shareholders are saying that they want them to come to the negotiating table and have a conversation. but they seemed to be determined that will give you a higher dividend. we don't want this deal. long can they hold out? they cannot keep offering more and more sweeteners. ok. mark, maybe you can ask ruth the question. mark: vonnie said how long can akzonobel can hold out an offer sweeteners to its shareholders? elliott wanted them to convene a shareholder meeting. they had been talking about all of these things.
if ppg goes hostile, it seems there will be a lot of investors that will back them. we will have to wait and see unless ppg decides to come with another offer. mark: the plot thickens and ruth will be back. in the netherlands, ruth, thanks a lot. vonnie: ok, staying with m&a in your bloomberg business flash, let's get you caught up. media marking a big acquisition since regulators seized limits on tv station ownership in the u.s.. it would give access to big media market but chicago, new york, and the miami -- and miami. a deal and a luxury handbag business could coach has agreed
to buy kate spade for $2.5 billion. coach had been trying to build a multibrand company through acquisition. salesile, kate spake's turned negative in the first quarter. shots fired in the bidding war over straight path. a mystery bidder says verizon has made a bid for the company. that gives at&t to match the offer. last month of at&t great to buy straight path for $1.6 billion. that is your latest bloomberg business flash. this is bloomberg. ♪
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centrist emanuel emerging the victor as predicted by the polling companies. but stocks lower. most of the gains came after the first round of the election. in between the first and second round. i tell you a great stat in a second, the a.c.a. 40. today we were lower. friday, highest level since august, 2015. we rose for a second week last week. morgan stanley said 47% of 250 companies it monitors have exceeded consensus in the earning since by 5% or more in the first quarter putting on the best quarter in a while. turning to the fundamentals. stocks are a little bit lower today. stocks have risen in the interim period. this is the va.c.a. which is volatility. 40. hite line is the cac in between the first and second round rose about 4.7%. it rose to a 2008 high. it was the biggest ever game
between two rounds of presidential ballots. we did see the r.s.i., the relative strength index, on the cac 40 on friday reaching as high as doubles since 2015. the discount between france and the rest of europe, because of those gains in the cac 40 is the narrowest since 2015. cac 40 trading at 14.5% estimated earnings. in absolute terms, the cac 40 is at the highest price earnings in two years. better to trouble than arrive is the phrase used today. the difference between the french and german 10-year. that monday after the first round when the difference narrowed by 19 basis points. we came down throughout that two-week period to 42 basis points today which is the lowest, the narrowest since december, 2015. and let's finish off with the euro which initially spiked higher on the back of the results on the asian session. but dipping lower throughout
the day thereafter. this is a clear signal victory was priced in. now we turn to the fed. rally above 110 and u.b.s. said the presidency should be supportive for the euro against the dollar. it's looking at 120 over the next 12 months. still above that 200-day moving average. what's it looking like there, vonnie? vonnie: well, the dollar index, mark, we are seeing the dollar index above 99. it was below 99 yesterday. mexican peso weakness back to 19. we saw it in the 18 handler or so next week. crude oil is ever weaker even with all of these opec speculations in the market. 45.87, down to dl 7%. ront end 1.33. the .02 is back around 100
basis points. let's move to g.m.m. and see what's happening with the g-10 movers. nikkei up. better data there. the index is also higher when it comes to the emerging market currency. the bloomberg dollar index taking much more notice of those currencies. not just the euro and the yen. and then of course yield terms, you see the u.s. is even turning it up -- the 30-year yield up three basis points. so let's now get back to you, mark. mark: vonnie, let's stick with markets. reaction has been muted to the french president's victory. will he have a trump-like rally? ining us is asset management strategist patrick. there was 75% turnout. 25% of the electorate didn't vote in the first round. we had 40% of voters go for extreme candidates. did that tell us, patrick,
there's still big dissatisfaction within the french economy? what does that mean over the next five years within this macron presidency? patrick: so as you mentioned, the bump the markets might get from the election result was already priced in. after le pen disappointed or underperformed in the first round. now the question really shifts so what can macron deliver? there is, as you mentioned shes a lot of dissatisfaction that not limited to france and 's not going to go away with le pen's defeat. we saw ones like italy turning the ship around and getting their economies moving again. in france they have legislative
elections in a month's time and that will really determine whether macron has the support to go forward and implement an agenda. we don't know what the agenda will be but whether he has the support to actually do something. mark: people keep telling me that we are in the strongest quarterly earnings season. i just quoted morgan stanley. in 14 years. there seems to be some sort of momentum right now back stopping this european stock market. just putting aside the things you just said, would you agree? patrick: we are seeing from a cyclical point of view some resergens in the european -- resurgeans in the european economy. there's no doubt about it. we're seeing it in earnings and seeing it in economic numbers. the biggest concern is long term, and for me you can see it in the youth unemployment numbers. the fact that you got aging populations that are going to be increasingly dependent on young people to support them
and yet those young people for year after year after year don't have jobs. that's a crisis in human capital. it's a crisis in the ability to deliver the standard of living that a lot of people in europe are going to expect. vonnie: so what will macron be able to do, and what does this mean for the e.s.b., patrick? are you changing your results on investing in europe? patrick: so macon does not have an agenda. he is not le pen and people rallied to him because of that. he was formerly in the socialist government. how much he's going to continue the previous president's policies, which tended to be more left wing, we're going to have to see because he really didn't lay out a clear agenda. vonnie: no. and so therefore can you recommend positions to your clients? will you accept maybe a small
position? patrick: so we have allocations in europe. we manage whole portfolios so it is different depending on the client. we have for the past several years overweight u.s. because we have seen a stronger growth story i think we're moving towards a neutral position because of the cyclical rebound that we're seeing in europe. but, again, you know, longer term, looking out five, 10 years, europe has to move away from this situation where they're stumbling from crisis to crisis and you can tuesdayly see -- actually see pro-growth policies. mark: what's your assessment of the u.k. as the election -- the snap election is months away and as brexit negotiations get under way, how do you see the next -- first, one month and then two-year horizon unfolding? patrick: so the lack of any really negative consequences, economic consequences for the brexit vote has really made a lot of british voters, british
politicians very confident. some would say cocky about the prospect of a hard brexit. you know, in fact, the conservatives are running and running fairly successfully it seems, according to polls, a strong economy. so, you know, we'll -- if the polls are right we'll see a consolidation of the conservatives' hold over parliament and that will mean theresa may has a stronger position going into the brexit negotiations but she has to be careful not to overplay her hand. vonnie: with all of your results and i know you spend a lot of time in the oil markets and traveling around vary asjha and different places, what is good for a typical investor if there is such a thing? patrick this is a ditch -- patrick: this is a difficult environment because we have had easing from governments around the world. i would say that the u.s.
equity market, even though it's seen a rally, we're seeing a good earnings season. vonnie: specific sectors? patrick: i could more easily point out the things that worry me rather than things i'm enthusiastic about and i think it's true for a lot of investors for the past couple of years. oil could undercut earnings if it goes below $40 in the energy market because a lot of the earnings rebound that we have seen over the past year has been energy and materials related. people are starting to get worried about china again. i was always worried about china. it's coming back on people's radar screen and it's affecting the oil price, the concern about demand. and the automobile market. vonnie: this is a disaster, patrick? you have to have something good to go on. patrick: valuations are relative so you have to be in a place where you're navigating between the different rocks. we are in an environment where assets have been pricey for quite sometime. vonnie: that's for sure. patrick, thank you very much.
at's chief strattist patrick chovanec. to courtney. courtney: president obama warned donald trump against hiring michael flynn as national security advisor. according to two former officials, mr. obama raised objections during the transition meeting. sally yates is to testify about flynn's contacts with russian officials. now flynn was ousted for misleading vice president pence about those contacts. in the u.k., prime minister theresa may is asking british voters for a mandate as large as macron won in france. he won 66% in the vote in the runoff and may says she needs that kind of support in the june 8 elections to be able to fight for britain in brexit talks. in sear yarks the foreign minister is talking about troops. he told reporters in damascus that syria would only settle
for russian military police who are already on the ground in he so-called zone. bill clinton and james paterson are teaming up to write the thriller. it's called "the president is missing." it will be a rare joint release from alfred and little brown and company. patterson said he's a storyteller and the former president's insight has allowed the two of them to tell a really interesting one. global news 24 hours a day powered more than 2,600 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. mark: coming up, what to expect macron e.u. after a win? may targeting the next prize ahead of sunday's vote. this is bloomberg.
vonnie: live from new york and london, i'm vonnie quin. mark: this is the "european close" on bloomberg markets. vonnie: all right. turning back to u.s. politics. president trump and his administration looking to deliver on promised tax cuts and headquarter legislation this year. but it seems congress' daunting calendar may prove to be the biggest hurdle. bloomberg national political reporter joins fruss capitol hill on this story. great story that you've written. pointing out just short a year it is when you actually get down to work. >> that's right, vonnie. i think one of the biggest things that's staring the white house and president trump in the face as they try to move on to not only getting headquarter done but other big things they want to do like tax reform,
like infrastructure is the calendar that congress faces. they are only 39 legislative days on the calendar until the august recess. the senate has a long and uncertain road on the headquarter fight. once congress returns it has to fund the government. it has a month to fund the government. we learned that was not an easy task for them. it has a series of expiring programs that it needs to extend like floorns and it needs to raise -- flood insurance and it needs to raise the debt limit. this happens in the fall and there are fundamental decisions on whether or not the stuff gets paid for and there are republican divisions on these things that force leaders to eat up political capital and take a lot of time out of it. it's just a difficult, difficult road ahead to do anything optional. vonnie: sure. in some sense, sahil, this is about political will. if there is a will to pass and have the tax legislation come up, then it will be there and it will happen fast. if the will isn't there, then it will be put off till, you know, gosh knows when. how much political will is there to get anything done in
this kind of environment? sahil: well, i think the big question is whether there's consensus. there is a will in the sense every republican you talk to say they want to do something on taxes. nobody is happy with the status quo. the problem with that is that not only is the calendar very difficult and daunting for them, the house and senate republicans are drifting further apart rather than toward consensus on the nuts and bolts of tax legislation. they are not agreeing on whether it should be permanent and revenue neutral which is i guess the prerequisite for perm assistance and they disagree on what, if anything, should be used to pay for it, things like interest dedictibility and the border tax. the house republicans are on board and the senate republicans are not. it's just not there on taxes yet. vonnie: so the 37 days you mentioned before the august recess, what happens? the senate takes up headquarter. the house moves on to tax legislation? sahil: well, we know the house ways and means committee, which is -- which is the tax writing
committee, plans on holding hearings and beyond that we don't really know. we know through the month of may we know that. the chairman of that committee, kevin brady, has eased off his earlier commitments to move it out of committee. he says he wants republicans on the same page before moving forward in order to guarantee success. as for headquarter, the senate is going to be starting from scratch as far as we know writing its own headquarter bill. they are not going to take up the house-passed bill because there's not enough support for it in the senate. in the house speaker ryan could have lost 21 votes. he lost 20 of those votes. senator mcconnell, the republican leader in the senate, can only spare two votes on headquarter. so it's, again, a long and uncertain road. we don't know which way it's going to go. another complication, vonny the senate finance chairman, orrin hatch, is overseeing not only headquarter but taxes. it's very difficult to do both of those things at the same time. vonnie: that's for sure. all right. blarg national political
reporter who's keeping his eyes on all of it, sahil kapur, thank you for that. mark. talking ela merkel about president macron's success yesterday. >> i already congratulated him yesterday on the phone. emanuel macron carries the hopes of those in france and germany. his election campaign was brave and pro-europe. he stands for cosmopolitanism and social market economy and we know that germany and france are bound together historically. mark: now merkel sets her sights in her elections in her own country looking ahead to a regional vote on sunday. north rhine, an area of more than a fifth of germany's populations. bloomberg's german editor is in berlin. marin le pen said no matter who wins the election, a female, a
woman, a lady will be running the country, referring to the relationship between macron and merkel. given merkel gave her approval to macron ahead of the election, what sort of relationship do we have between the two when it comes to fulfilling macron's vision on european reform and what he wants to achieve within the e.u.? tony: well, mark, the word from merkel today was actually quite simple. i need to see what he says in terms of his agenda. in other words, what proposals he comes up with in his first big speech and also i want to meet the man, although they met before, obviously, but now that he's president. so merkel wasn't about to make any immediate promises. we also heard from -- privately om officials in germany that that probably won't happen in any real specific terms before the german election where, of course, merkel is running for another term. so lots of encouragement.
but little on specifics. mark: and angela merkel, tony, had a state election to focus on herself yesterday. she emerged her party victorious which is ahead of next sunday's state election in the country's most populous state. i mean, that's the big cherry on the cake, isn't it? tony: yeah, absolutely. and merkel made it very clear today at a news conference that she's going into this election in german's most populous state where she feels momentum but lso she's going in fighting. if the christian democratic union in her party flips the state and ousts the social democrats who have governed it now for the past term, that will be a big victory and it would set her up very nicely for the national election in
the fall which, however, is still a couple months off. mark: tony, in january, schultz was the next big thing. has he lost his luster? tony: well, the polls certainly seem to indicate that. martin schultz became party chairman as well as the chancellor candidate for the social democrats. the second biggest party in germany. and since then, the party's lost two state elections, including one yesterday. so the flip side to that he hasn't been campaigning at full force, if you like, and merkel has very much been out there. she's also been out there internationally. it advantages merkel at this point. and the german tradition is the real campaign for the national election only takes place in maybe the last six to eight weeks before voters actually go to the polls. mark: tony, thanks a lot. bloomberg german editor tony czucka.
vonnie: well, it is time now for our global battle of the charts where we take a look at some of the telling chars of the day and what if means for investors. you can access these charts on bloomberg by running the featured at the bottom of your screen. kicking things off and i think it says something where our heads are at today because both taylor riggs and barton are saying somewhat of a similar theme. taylor. taylor: we are talking about the french election so i am looking here in currencies about the euro risk reversals. e put deltas and gamma but i think speaking greek wouldn't give me the big win so i will put it down into layman's terms and this is showing market sentiment how traders are feeling, how they are feeling
about euro's strengths and weaknesses. let me start from the beginning and walk you through. here you have euro strength versus pound weakness. of course that was during brexit. we normalized a little bit. here's what i am looking at in this circle in gray as you have a weaker euro versus a stronger yen and that was a lot weaker during the first round of polls as we aren't really sure if the candidates would up end the establishment. then there were still some concerns about a weaker euro but not as much as macron and the polls correctly predicted that he would win. and here we are just going back to normalization. so what's really showing is we are going back to historical norms of where we are. vonnie: didn't the -- mark, what have you got? mark: is may cursed for emerging currency market? the f.x. index has fallen in six of the last seven mays. citi group credits investors, he winning may be coming to an
end. may will have off-shore investors and indonesian -- increase in gold purchase in may seems to drive the repeat. lower two lines. no real reason. it's a seasonal quirk. if we rise, vonnie, it will be a six-month winning streerks the best run since june, 2015. e.m.f.x.? a quirk by 8556 : you can find it in in the bloomberg. will award a tie. it's been a little while since we had one so there you go.
vonnie: from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, here are the top stories on bloomberg and around the world we're following. in company news, a busy day for amodei as sinclaire seals the deal for tribune, coach by kate spade and a bidding war for straight path reaches fever pitch. in france, emanuel macron's decisive victory over the le pen. marine but there is little room for a relief rally. focus shifts to the challenges facing the incoming french president. and david einhorn has two of the most frustrating trades, a position in g.m. and a position in tess la. both are in dire need of a catalyst. we are halfway into the trading day and julie hymen